This week I finished reading Better Angels of Our Nature, a momentuous book from Steven Pinker. In it he argues that that humans have never lived through such peaceful times as they do now. He assembles a massive body of statistical evidence, and then performs a particularly rigorous analysis of that evidence, to show that Western people have the lowest probability of suffering from violence than at any time in the last 500 years, and most probably in all human history.
Unsurprisingly his book has generated a huge reaction from the intellgencia. His thesis flies in the face of what the news media and popular sentiment the world over would have us think. He particularly offends conservatives, who always argue from the assumption that the past was better than the present.
However I have been doing an informal poll with friends over the past few weeks on this topic. I have asked them to given an opinion on whether compared to 100 years ago, people had a higher likelihood, a lower likelihood, or about the same likelihood, of suffering harm at the hands of another person. I clarified that this covered all forms of violence including war and terrorism, as well as murder or assault. None of my friends thought that they were more likely, most thought that they were less likely, and a few thought that it was about the same.
Thus certainly most people can see from their own experience, and that of their friends, that things have improved compared to their knowledge of the past, which was gained tnrough reading, watching documentaries and watching works of entertainment. They are all sceptical of the media, where truth suffers at the hands of the showman.
I think Steven Pinker has proposed a fundamental truth, and that his book will be one of the most significant of this decade. I have read a few of the counter arguments given in reviews, and none of them provide anywhere near the same level of statistical evidence, or apply the same strong logic. If anything, the weakness of the criticism just adds to Mr. Pinker's thesis.
One thing that I must make clear - Steven Pinker does not think that such a decline in violence will always remain, irrespective of future events. Though he shows that the decline has resulted from a serendipitous combination of changes in how people think, he also points our clearly that these trends could just as easily reverse. Our future could easily become more violent again. Mr. Pinker appears to hope that by writing this book, we gain a better understanding of the blessings that prevent violence, and thus do more work to preserve them.